WARGAMING STRATEGIC WAR HOW TO
WARGAMING STRATEGIC WAR FULL

Scenario Planning would have enabled Napster to foresee a critical change looming in the legal environment This would have ultimately led him to identify those fatal blind spots. War-gaming could have provided Jim Balsillie the opportunity to challenge the strategy and pressure test assumptions from the competitor’s viewpoint. We have seen time and time again just how powerful it is when you walk in the competitor’s shoes – especially when you’re the market leader. June 2008 RIM closed at $144.56 per share and forty-nine months later it closed at $6.78 - a near 95% loss. Blackberry’s CEO Jim Balsillie saw the iPhone as “one more entrant into an already very busy space with lots of choice for consumers”.īlackberry was left stumbling and blinded by their own success. As revolutionary as the BlackBerry was, its market dominance left its leaders unprepared for the introduction of the iPhone in 2007, which as Steve Jobs put it, was going to “ reinvent the smartphone”.

WARGAMING STRATEGIC WAR FULL

It was the first handset to properly combine phone calls with full email support, a web browser and a digital calendar. Wargaming would have opened Blackberry’s eyes to the real threat of the iPhoneīlackberry used to be the smartphone to own. If no uncertainty is present then it is best to stick to traditional planning.

The need for these methods (or a combination of them) is dependent on the extent and type of uncertainty present in your operating environment. Especially when paired with the right leadership mind-set and market intelligence. When used in the right circumstances war-gaming and scenario planning can be transformative. How Can War-Gaming or Scenario Planning Help Me? Unlike war-games, which look specifically at competitors’ actions, Scenario Planning takes a wider perspective, and is designed to address the intersection of several trends relating to technology, suppliers, customers, consumers and regulators.

WARGAMING STRATEGIC WAR HOW TO

Scenario Planning, first popularised by Shell in the early 1970s, involves visualising future conditions, understanding the consequences, and how to best respond. War-gaming is a direct adaptation from military war games and involves creating a hypothetical competitive situation where two or more teams (competitors) engage in battle. What’s the Difference Between War-Gaming and Scenario Planning? However, in our experience, many companies don’t have a real understanding of what these tools are and how to use them effectively. War-Gaming and Scenario Planning are perfect approaches for exactly that. To live longer, planning methods that enable quick understanding and preparation for the future should become a key element of the strategic calendar. With this in mind, one must ask, what’s the elixir to a longer and healthier life? Predicting what will change, and when change will come, is becoming increasingly challenging – all the more so for organisations that rely on traditional planning methods suited to more stable times. What’s interesting is how the acceleration of disruption correlates with company performance - the 33 year average tenure of companies on the S&P 500 in 1964 narrowed to 24 years by 2016, and is forecast to shrink to a mere 12 years by 2027. This isn’t new news, in fact, you probably all know this. From Monarch Airlines to Blackberry to Toys R Us – we’re surrounded by tragedies. There is no denying that the acceleration of market disruption has had major repercussions for organisations that can’t keep up.

Wargaming strategic war